The rookie found a strong link between stolen bases and wins, and fired off the headline below.
0 / 2 graded
person
Rookie's submission
Model: wins ? stolen bases · n = 20 teams
r = 0.74, R² = 0.55 ✓ strong fit
"Teams that steal more bases win more.
So: STEAL MORE BASES TO WIN MORE GAMES."
1 · What's wrong with the rookie's conclusion?
Regression measures association, not cause. Fast, well-coached teams may both steal more and win more — a third factor driving both. SLR can't separate that.
2 · What's a fair way to state the finding?
Describe the relationship and its strength; avoid causal verbs ('causes', 'leads to') unless you ran an experiment.
insights
Graded — association ≠ causation.
A line through the data shows things move together. Proving one causes the other needs far more than R².
